The upcoming fight between Benoit Saint-Denis and Paddy Pimblett, scheduled for UFC 329 on May 24, 2026, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, is generating significant pre-fight betting interest. As the market opens, Saint-Denis is positioned as the slight favorite, with Pimblett the underdog.
Initial betting lines show Saint-Denis at approximately -170, while Pimblett is listed around +145. Although the market leans towards a Saint-Denis victory, Pimblett’s established profile and recent performances ensure this matchup remains competitive on paper.
Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett Odds Breakdown
Benoit Saint-Denis is recognized for his aggressive finishing ability. His professional record stands at 17-3-0 with one no contest, and he boasts a strong history of submission victories (10) and knockouts (4). His background in judo and his time with French special forces contribute to his high-pressure fighting style.
Paddy Pimblett enters the octagon with a record of 23-4. His UFC profile highlights a well-rounded ground game, though his defensive statistics are less robust than his offensive output. Pimblett’s recent bouts include a unanimous decision loss to Justin Gaethje in January 2026, preceded by wins over Michael Chandler, King Green, Tony Ferguson, Jared Gordon, Jordan Leavitt, Kazula Vargas, and Luigi Vendramini.
It’s also worth noting that UFC 329 will feature the return of Conor McGregor in a fight against former opponent Max Holloway.
Regarding method of victory betting, Saint-Denis presents a compelling option if you favor the odds-on choice and a potential stoppage. His finishing tendencies suggest a submission or a late TKO as likely outcomes. Pimblett’s path to victory typically involves engaging in grappling exchanges, where he excels at creating scrambles and seeking submissions. If the betting lines remain close to their opening numbers, a Saint-Denis stoppage appears to be the most probable outcome according to the market. Upset victories for Pimblett would most likely come via decision or submission.
From a preview perspective, this lightweight contest has the potential for rapid line movement if significant betting action favors one fighter. While Saint-Denis currently holds the favorite status, the margin is not substantial enough to suggest a one-sided affair, especially given Pimblett’s name recognition and recent wins, which maintain considerable public interest.
The prevailing narrative for betting purposes is Saint-Denis as the favorite and Pimblett as the value play. The method of victory market is likely to focus on a finish rather than a drawn-out, cautious three-round fight. If the odds maintain their current proximity, Saint-Denis to win by stoppage is the most logical early prediction. However, considering Pimblett as an underdog offers a significant opportunity for value.
