Francis Ngannou is set to return to mixed martial arts competition for the first time in over 20 months when he faces Philipe Lins on May 16 at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. This bout will serve as the co-main event for MVP MMA’s showcase on Netflix. Bookmakers widely consider “The Predator” to be a significant favorite heading into this heavyweight clash, with his odds shifting from -1408 in late March to -1400 by mid-May.
Philipe Lins, a 40-year-old Brazilian fighter, is the underdog, with betting lines ranging from +750 to +850, as seen on popular UK sports betting platforms. Lins, who won the PFL’s 2018 heavyweight tournament, last fought in March 2024, securing a unanimous decision victory over Ion Cutelaba. He boasts a professional record of 18 wins and 5 losses, with 13 of his victories coming by way of stoppage. However, Lins has shown defensive vulnerabilities in striking, having been knocked out in four of his five career defeats. Notably, he suffered a first-round knockout loss to Tanner Boser in 2020. His recent career has largely been at light heavyweight, where he achieved a 4-0 record before experiencing two knockout losses in the UFC at heavyweight.
Regarding the method of victory, predictive odds strongly suggest Ngannou will secure an early stoppage. Betting markets indicate a high likelihood of a first-round win for Ngannou, with odds of 1/5 for a finish between rounds one and three. Prop bets for a knockout victory place the probability around 8% when considering all potential outcomes. Lins is listed at 12/1 odds to achieve an upset within three rounds and between +750 and +850 to win the bout outright, implying an approximately 10.5% chance of victory.
While Lins possesses competent striking and serviceable grappling skills, the disparity in experience against elite competition is significant. Ngannou has defeated numerous top-tier heavyweights, whereas Lins’ history of knockout losses highlights his susceptibility to powerful strikers. Both fighters face the challenge of a two-year layoff, but Ngannou’s decisive win over Ferreira carries more weight than Lins’ victory over a lower-ranked opponent.
Ngannou enters this fight on the back of a knockout win against Renan Ferreira in October 2024 under the PFL banner, marking his return to MMA after brief forays into professional boxing against Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua. The Cameroonian heavyweight has an impressive 72% stoppage ratio throughout his career, with 13 of his 18 wins ending by knockout or TKO. His last five consecutive victories have all come by knockout, and eight of his final ten wins concluded within the first two minutes of the opening round. During his tenure in the UFC, Ngannou compiled a 12-1 record with knockouts, ultimately capturing the heavyweight championship by knocking out Stipe Miocic in just 52 seconds of the second round.
