However, while Lula oversaw a more than 70% drop in deforestation during his first run as president in the early 2000s, the rainforest’s future remains deeply uncertain.
That’s in part because Brazilian administrations, whether of the right or left, have all promoted an ambitious project to boost exports and the economy called the Initiative for the Integration of the Regional Infrastructure of South America, or IIRSA.
The initiative focuses on new roads, dams and industry that can threaten the region’s fragile rainforest ecosystem – and harm the world’s climate in the process.
At first glance, IIRSA might sound like progress. Its goal is to improve Amazonia’s economy by developing its resources and establishing better access to global markets. To accomplish this, the initiative plans to rehabilitate and extend the existing highway system and build dams, ports, industrial waterways and railroads.
However, evidence from my research in the Amazon over the past 30 years and by other scientists shows that new roads lead to more deforestation, putting extreme pressure on the rainforest. Outside of protected areas, nearly 95% of all deforestation occurs within 3.4 miles (5.5 kilometers) of a road or less than two-thirds of a mile (1 km) from a river.
They also downsized protected areas to make way for their projects. Rousseff even downsized Amazon National Park, the first such park in Amazonia. In all, 181 square miles (469 square kilometers) were removed, close to 5% of the total area. The most scenic park landscape along the Tapajos River shoreline was taken to make way for dam construction.
Now back in office, Lula has signaled his approval of a key IIRSA project: the revitalization of BR-319, a federal highway between Porto Velho and Manaus.
I believe this should cause alarm. Research shows too much deforestation could push the forest over a tipping point from which it can’t recover. No one knows exactly where the line is, but the vast Amazon that people picture today with its extraordinary biodiversity and dense forests would be no more. Such a catastrophe once seemed the bad dream of doomsayers, but there is mounting evidence that the forest is in trouble.
The Amazonian tipping point
The tropical rainforest sustains itself by recycling rain to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration, which makes more moisture available. Rainfall recycling accounts for about 50% of the basin’s precipitation today.
Too much deforestation could leave too little rainfall recycling to sustain the forest.
Given the evidence, scientists have revised the tipping point to deforestation as low as 20% to 25%. Even if only a fifth of the forest is lost, the remainder could quickly degrade into an ecosystem of fire-adapted grasses and shrubby trees that look nothing like the massive ones native to the rainforest.
NASA satellite images show the expansion of deforestation as roads are built in the Amazon.
Deforestation across all the Amazonian nations now stands at a little over 16%. In my view, this is far too close for comfort, especially with the momentum of the IIRSA program.
More than one tipping point?
The deforestation problem isn’t the only pressure on the forest – the Amazon is also dealing with the heat and drought of global warming.
Evidence suggests that global climate change may be enough to push large parts of the rainforest to the brink. One concern is that the dry season is getting longer, a shift that appears to be driven by global warming. This affects annual precipitation by reducing the number of rainy days and makes fire more damaging by extending the season when trees can easily burn.
Averting Amazonia’s looming tipping point catastrophe will require effort by the global community. In the past, Brazil has controlled deforestation through its forest code and by designating protected areas.
To step back from the brink, Lula would have to begin enforcing the forest code again, which limits deforestation on private property. He would also have to persuade the Brazilian Congress to stop creating incentives for land grabs – the taking of public land for private uses.
Although Lula would have a difficult time reclaiming already grabbed land, expanding protected areas could reduce deforestation. Obviously, downsizing Amazonia’s existing protected areas would have to stop.
Finally, Lula would need to revisit the IIRSA program and pursue only those projects that bring economic development without excessive deforestation.
Slowing global climate change, however, will require international collaboration on an unprecedented scale. Luckily, a forum for this already exists with the Paris Agreement.
The Amazon Basin is home to 35 million people, many of whom live in poverty. They have every right to desire a better life, and that’s one reason that IIRSA has a great deal of local support.
However, while the initiative might bring short-term benefits, it also risks destroying the very resources it was intended to develop. And that could leave the region in a state of poverty that cannot be alleviated.
Robert T. Walker receives funding from The U.S. National Science Foundation. He is affiliated with The University of Florida, Center for Latin American Studies.
Guthrie questioned whether politicians really cared about the public interest — such as the welfare of these veterans demonstrating in front of Congress in 1932.Senate Historical Office
The debt ceiling debate between the House GOP and President Joe Biden could, if not solved, lead to economic chaos and destruction – so it might seem strangely lighthearted to wonder what a Great Depression-era singer and activist would think about this particular political moment.
But he lived through the Great Depression and its aftermath. He also stood witness to legislators struggling to correct the direction that the nation was headed in during the 1930s and early ‘40s.
He had a lot to say about Congress in general and how it handled the national debt in particular.
He once made a folksy joke that suggests his feelings about this supposedly august body.
Guthrie constantly railed against politicians, both Republican and Democrat, who he thought represented their own selfish interests rather than those of deserving working men and women.
What if he could survey today’s America? Would his comments on the state of the nation in the past suggest that he would have something to say in 2023?
In fact, some of his observations sound as if they were written about this political moment – rather than his own.
When Guthrie visited Washington, D.C., in 1940, he managed to hear some Senate debates and provided his thoughts on their effectiveness.
“I gawthered the Reactionary Republicans was in love with the Reactionary Republicans; also that the Liberal Democrats was in love with th’ Liberal Demacrats. Each presented a brief case of statistics proving that the other brief cases of statistics, was mistaken, misread, misquoted, mislabeled, and mis-spoken,” he wrote in his column.
And just what were politicians arguing over then? The national debt.
Guthrie witnessed much the same situation in his era. During his visit to Washington, D.C., he listened to “senators a making speeches – on every conceivable subject under the sun, an’ though the manner in which they brought forth their arguments, their polished wit, and subtle maneuvers, were all very entertaining, I come out of it as empty handed as I went in,” he wrote in “Woody Sez.”
He then compared their debates to “hearin’ the hens a cacklin’ – and a runnin’ out to th barn.” Despite the scene’s being “loud, noisy, and plenty entertaining,” the result was “no eggs.”
There’s a lot of noise coming from Congress today also – but no results.
What could happen if the two sides cannot agree? A telling example occurred in 2011, when the bipartisan deal to raise the debt ceiling came so late that Standard & Poor’s downgraded the country’s credit rating – which hiked the interest that needed to be paid on the U.S. debt.
But if an agreement does not happen, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that such a crisis would bring on “economic and financial catastrophe” on a national and global scale.
Guthrie would find this kind of brinkmanship troubling. Not because he was a political operative, with merely an intellectual understanding of the risks. Instead, he was driven by a personal knowledge of the day-to-day hardships, the human toll of such momentous political decisions. His family had fallen from middle-class safety into abject poverty even before the onset of the Great Depression.
Because of falling agricultural prices in the aftermath of World War I and his father’s real estate speculation in some small farms surrounding their hometown of Okemah, Oklahoma, the Guthries could not keep up with their mortgages. They were forced into foreclosure.
Guthrie joked that his father “was the only man in the world that lost a farm a day for thirty days.”
Foreclosures would likely be just one of the ruinous effects of default now, along with interest rates hikes, slashing of social programs, unemployment spikes and decimation of pension plans. All are negative results, but they are certain to hit the poor and working class the hardest.
Those are the people whom Woody Guthrie advocated for throughout his career. Those are the people whose hardships he lamented in such songs as “I Ain’t Got No Home” and “Dust Bowl Refugee.”
But he also expressed optimism about the power of those same people to make a positive change, such as in “Union Maid” and “Better World A-Comin’.” Individual and collective action was necessary, according to Guthrie, and he celebrated both. The union maid would “always get her way when she asked for better pay,” and in “Better World” he sings, “we’ll all be union and we’ll all be free.”
Perhaps his best-known comments about the nation appear in “This Land Is Your Land,” with the popular version praising the American landscape. But in his early version of that song, he ended it with his narrator surveying a line of hungry people lined up “by the relief office” and then asked, “Was this land made for you and me?”
That question could rise again in 2023: If congressional leaders debating over the debt ceiling fail to find common ground for the nation’s greater good, perhaps someone will challenge them and ask if the politicians are in office for the American people, or for themselves – just as Woody Guthrie would have.
Mark Allan Jackson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Without much fanfare, a federal panel is removing the names of Confederate generals from U.S. military bases and replacing them with names that exemplify modern-day values and patriotism.
Most recently, on May 11, 2023, the U.S. Army base in Georgia originally named after Confederate Brig. Gen. Henry Benning was renamed Fort Moore after both Lt. Gen. Harold “Hal” Moore, who served in Vietnam, and his wife, Julia Moore, who had been an advocate for military families and reformed the military’s death notice procedures.
In stark contrast to the Moores, Benning was a leader in the South’s secession movement and strongly defended slavery.
Over the years, The Conversation US has published numerous stories exploring the legacy of Confederate nostalgia, everything from national monuments to U.S. military bases. Here are selections from those articles.
1. Reconsidering Confederate iconography
For decades, nine U.S. Army bases have carried the names of men who fought against the United States and its Union army – in a war waged to defend and perpetuate the slavery of people of African descent.
These military installations, all in Southern states, were named to honor such figures as Gen. Robert E. Lee, who commanded the Confederate Army, and John Bell Hood, an associate of Lee’s known for being both brave and impetuous.
Until recently, the military installations honoring Confederate leaders received little scrutiny from the media. As a newspaper reporter four decades ago, Jeff South gave the names a free pass. In 1981, South wrote, he covered the Boy Scouts Jamboree at Fort A.P. Hill in Virginia without mentioning that the base was named for a man who had turned against the United States and fought to defend slavery.
“In recent years, more Americans, including those living in the South, have reconsidered the use of Confederate iconography,” South wrote.
As a professor of pop culture history who studies Black statues within mainstream society, Frederick Gooding Jr. wrote about America’s reckoning with its oppressive past.
“The nation (faces) the question of not just which statues and other images should be taken down,” Gooding explained, “but what else – if anything – should be put up in their place.”
Gooding pointed out that the lack of Black statues, for example, is an overlooked barometer of racial progress and “sends a clear message of exclusion.”
Alan Marcus and Walter Woodward have been studying the role of Confederate monuments and other nostalgia in American memory.
“Historical monuments are intended to be timeless, but almost all have an expiration date,” they wrote. “As society’s values shift, the legitimacy of monuments can and often does erode.”
This is because monuments, including the names of U.S. military bases, reveal the values of the time in which they were created and advance the agendas of their creators.
Traditionally, it has funneled down domestic routes, with local politicians, business interests and drug lords benefiting from graft and dodgy dealings. Indeed, a 2022 report from Transparency International found that 27 out of 30 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have shown stagnant corruption levels with no improvement in recent years.
But over the last two decades, a new form of corruption has taken hold in countries in the region, a phenomenon we call “geostrategic corruption.”
It is characterized by external countries using corrupt methods – no-bid contracts, insider financial deals, special relations with those in power – to become stakeholders in multiple facets of the politics, economy and society of a country. China is a master of the art; the United States, less so.
Geostrategic corruption builds on traditional pervasive patterns of clientelism and patronage. In Latin America in particular, the growth of the drug gangs since the 1980s introduced “narco-corruption” in which police and local officials collude with organized gangs, which are able to “buy protection” from prosecution.
This pattern of corruption has coincided with a period in which the U.S. has turned its attention away from Latin America and toward first the Middle Eastand then Asia.
China’s expansion in the region is largely driven by the country’s search for resources such as cobalt, lithium, rare earths, hydrocarbons and access to foodstuffs, which are abundant in Latin America. In the past 20 years, China has also poured massive investments into infrastructure, energy and financial sectors of Latin America.
And China isn’t alone in upping its interest in Latin America. The last two decades have also seen an increase in investment and influence in the region from Russiaand Iran.
These countries have found Latin America a fertile ground due in no small part to the region’s culture of corruption and weak institutions, we argue. Local criminal networks and the disregard of democratic norms on the ground have made it easier for countries that themselves are perceived to be dogged by corruption to gain a foothold in Latin America.
US-China global competition
China’s presence in the region forms part of the country’s long-term strategic objective to challenge U.S. influence across the globe through economic, military, financial and political means.
That process has been aided by global trends. Countries such as Brazil and Argentina have increasingly sought to diversify bilateral relationship and become less dependent on U.S. trade.
Meanwhile, Russian aggression in Ukraine has seemingly given China more weight on the international scene, with Beijing positioning itself as an alternative diplomatic force to Washington, especially to countries that feel nonaligned to the West. A recent example was seen in March, when Honduras announced it would establish diplomatic relations with Beijing and break off ties with Taiwan – a development that Taiwanese officials say followed the “bribing” of Honduran officials.
What gives China an added competitive edge as it extends its influence is that it is able to eschew constraints that bind many would-be investors in the West – such as environmental concerns or hesitation over a country’s labor rights and level of corruption. Chinese companies are judged by international watchdogs to beamong the least transparent in the world, and bribery watchdogs have long noted Beijing’s reluctance to prosecute Chinese companies or individuals accused of bribery in regard to foreign contracts. A 2021 study found that 35% of China’s “Belt and Road” projects worldwide have been marked by environmental, labor and corruption problems.
U.S. companies are, of course, not spotless when it comes to engaging in corrupt practices overseas. But unlike China, the U.S. government is bound to an international treatyprohibiting the use of bribes to win contracts. Moreover, the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act strictly prohibits American companies from bribing foreign officials; China has no such equivalent.
For example, in Bolivia during the 14-year tenure of President Evo Morales, Chinese companies achieved a major foothold in key sectors of the economy that has translated into a monopoly over the lithium industry there, despite a strong anti-mining movement in the country.
In Venezuela, China initiated but never completed construction of a multibillion dollar bullet train line, and an iron mining deal not only allowed the Asian country to buy Venezuela’s iron ore at a price 75% below market, but also turned out to be an instance of Chinese predatory financing, leaving Venezuela in a catastrophic $1 billion debt. Likewise, in Panama, port concessions and a high-speed train line were frozen or canceled, while the investor is under investigation in China.
This use of geostrategic corruption works to the direct detriment of U.S. interests.
In Argentina and Bolivia, Chinese expansion means that sectors that are crucial for the success of the U.S.’s green energy goals are increasingly under Beijing’s hold. It also undermines U.S. efforts to counter corruption and human rights abuses in the region.
And U.S. companies are unable to compete. The Biden administration has set high standards for U.S. investment in the very sectors where the Chinese have a strong foothold. These include transparency and accountability, as well as commitments to environmental, labor and human rights standards.
President Joe Biden has stated that adherence to these standards is what distinguishes U.S. foreign investments from its competitors. But it does hamstring American companies when it comes to competing with China.
In the meantime, while the U.S. is looking for answers and trying to figure out how to reestablish influence in Latin America, China is quietly and pragmatically increasing its presence in the region.
As an academic and as director of a university research center, I’ve received funding from foundations, US government agencies, and multilateral institutions.
Valeriia Popova does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.